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What will happen to Israel and Taiwan if America cuts off Ukraine?

By Bruce Ledewitz

Would Israel survive the fall of Ukraine? Would Taiwan? Republican leaders in the House certainly think so. While criticizing and blocking military aid to Ukraine, they claim to remain steadfast supporters of such aid for Israel and Taiwan.

But these lawmakers are mistaken. While no doubt sincere friends of Israel and Taiwan, they are unwittingly endangering both.

Endangering two nations

This is obvious in the case of domestic American support. Recently, on NPR, a South Carolina Republican explained his Party’s opposition to aid to Ukraine in clear isolationist terms: “They see things through the prism of, hey, why are we investing in Kyiv when we can’t invest in Red Bank, S.C., which is a city in Lexington County.”

This Republican certainly spoke for many. A survey of voters in the South Carolina Republican Primary showed that 60% opposed further aid to Ukraine.

It is obvious that the very same kind of thing can be, and will be, said of further aid to Israel and Taiwan. Given the level of hostility to Israel that has been evident among the American public, and given public uncertainty over how best to deal with China, these very same arguments will be raised as soon as additional aid to Ukraine is finally rejected.

In fact, the case for aid to Ukraine is stronger than the case for aid to these other countries. Ukraine is under active attack by an aggressive, larger nation-state. Nevertheless, Ukraine is only asking for money and weapons.

In contrast, America’s implied military guarantees to Israel and Taiwan include American military forces. American soldiers have already been killed and injured in actions related to our military support for Israel. And, of course, America will be drawn into a military confrontation if China invades Taiwan.

You can just hear the popular criticism of any such commitments: Why should we send soldiers overseas when we won’t use our military to defend our own border?

This is the domestic threat to aid that cutting off support for Ukraine will unleash. The strategic threat to Israel and Taiwan from an aid cutoff is more subtle, but just as real.

There are in the world today two major contending blocs, along with a majority of countries belonging to neither. On one side is America and her allies in Europe and Asia. This is the coalition that provides Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan with aid, support and friendly relations. On the other side is a loose, disruptive coalition, including Russia, China, North Korea and Iran.

This is the coalition that will benefit from Ukraine’s fall.

The coalition

Although the Biden Administration has been criticized as ineffective in limiting Iran’s ambitions, there is no question that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iran have forged a strong relationship since his invasion of Ukraine. Iran is a major supplier of arms to Russia and Russia helps Iran evade Western sanctions.

Putin’s success in Ukraine will strengthen Iran to a far greater extent than any American policy failure. And that will threaten Israel. The effect on China from Ukraine’s fall will be similar and that will threaten Taiwan.

There are politicians, such as Republican Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, who argue that America cannot afford to defend and arm Ukraine, along with Israel and Taiwan. This is a foolish position.

American policy is aimed primarily at deterring an attack on Taiwan, not stacking up arms to fight China. Nothing is more likely to convince China that America will not actually defend Taiwan than cutting off aid to Ukraine. China might invade based on that mistaken assumption.

Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan are three legs of a stool of freedom and democracy. America should support each of them for the same reason—they are free, democratic states threatened by autocracies and hostile neighbors.

Certainly none of the three countries is beyond legitimate criticism. Critics of Ukraine cite corruption and other issues. Critics of Israel raise the issue of its treatment of the Palestinians. Critics of Taiwan consider some of its actions toward China needlessly provocative.

But the bond of friendship among free democracies does not require perfection. These three countries face real threats of annihilation. The survival of freedom and democracy in the world is the only sure guarantee of America’s own security and prosperity. Supporting such states is therefore in our national interest.

Our democratic creed

Support for free, democratic countries is also our national creed. That creed is the answer to isolationism. That creed is our response to dictatorships and tyrannies. That creed is the surest ground of support not only for Ukraine, but for Israel and Taiwan as well.

America should not be the world’s policeman. Ukraine is not asking us to be that. But America did bequeath freedom and democracy to the world. Therefore, free and democratic countries should always be able to count on our friendship and material support when they are threatened.

Bruce Ledewitz is a professor of law at the Thomas R. Kline School of Law of Duquesne University. His previous article was “Americans must stop Israel annexing the West Bank.” The views expressed do not represent those of Duquesne University.

First Published March 12, 2024, 5:30am with the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

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